A Poisson-multinomial spatial model for simultaneous outbreaks with application to arboviral diseases.

Dengue, Zika, and chikungunya are arboviral diseases (AVD) transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti. Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil, has been endemic for dengue for over 30 years, and experienced the first joint epidemic of the three diseases between 2015-2016. They present similar symptoms and only a small proportion of cases are laboratory-confirmed. These facts lead to potential misdiagnosis and, consequently, uncertainty in the registration of the cases. We have available the number of cases of each disease for the n=160 neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro. We propose a Poisson model for the total number of cases of Aedes-borne diseases and, conditioned on the total, we assume a multinomial model for the allocation of the number of cases of each of the diseases across the neighborhoods. This provides simultaneously the estimation of the associations of the relative risk of the total cases of AVD with environmental and socioeconomic variables; and the estimation of the probability of presence of each disease as a function of available covariates. Our findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in the social development index decreases the relative risk of the total cases of AVD by 28%. Neighborhoods with smaller proportion of green area had greater odds of having chikungunya in comparison to dengue and Zika. A one standard deviation increase in population density decreases the odds of a neighborhood having Zika instead of dengue by 18% but increases the odds of chikungunya in comparison to dengue by 18% and by 43% in comparison to Zika.

Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is an important public health problem affecting vulnerable urban slum populations in developing country settings. However, the complex interaction of meteorological factors driving the temporal trends of leptospirosis remain incompletely understood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From March 1996-March 2010, we investigated the association between the weekly incidence of leptospirosis and meteorological anomalies in the city of Salvador, Brazil by using a dynamic generalized linear model that accounted for time lags, overall trend, and seasonal variation. Our model showed an increase of leptospirosis cases associated with higher than expected rainfall, lower than expected temperature and higher than expected humidity. There was a lag of one-to-two weeks between weekly values for significant meteorological variables and leptospirosis incidence. Independent of the season, a weekly cumulative rainfall anomaly of 20 mm increased the risk of leptospirosis by 12% compared to a week following the expected seasonal pattern. Finally, over the 14-year study period, the annual incidence of leptospirosis decreased significantly by a factor of 2.7 (8.3 versus 3.0 per 100,000 people), independently of variations in climate. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies to control leptospirosis should focus on avoiding contact with contaminated sources of Leptospira as well as on increasing awareness in the population and health professionals within the short time window after low-level or extreme high-level rainfall events. Increased leptospirosis incidence was restricted to one-to-two weeks after those events suggesting that infectious Leptospira survival may be limited to short time intervals.

A Local View of Informal Urban Environments: a Mobile Phone-Based Neighborhood Audit of Street-Level Factors in a Brazilian Informal Community.

Street-level environment characteristics influence the health behaviors and safety of urban residents, and may particularly threaten health within informal communities. However, available data on how such characteristics vary within and among informal communities is limited. We sought to adapt street audit strategies designed to characterize the physical environment for use in a large informal community, Rio das Pedras (RdP) located in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A smartphone-based systematic observation protocol was used to gather street-level information for a high-density convenience sample of street segments (N = 630, estimated as 86% of all street segments in the community). We adapted items related to physical disorder and physical deterioration. Measures selected to illustrate the approach include the presence of the following: (1) low-hanging or tangled wires, (2) litter, (3) structural evidence of sinking, and (4) an unpleasant odor. Intercept-only spatial generalized additive models (GAM) were used to evaluate and visualize spatial variation within the RdP community. We also examined how our estimates and conclusions about spatial variation might have been affected by lower-density sampling from random subsets street observations. Random subsets were selected to determine the robustness of study results in scenarios with sparser street sampling. Selected characteristics were estimated to be present for between 18% (unpleasant odor) to 59% (low-hanging or tangled wires) of the street segments in RdP; estimates remain similar (± 6%) when relying on a random subset created to simulate lower-density spatial sampling. Spatial patterns of variation based on predicted probabilities across RdP differed by indicator. Structural sinking and low-hanging or tangled wires demonstrated relatively consistent spatial distribution patterns across full and random subset sample sizes. Smartphone-based systematic observations represent an efficient and potentially feasible approach to systematically studying neighborhood environments within informal communities. Future deployment of such tools will benefit from incorporating data collection across multiple time points to explore reliability and quantify neighborhood change. These tools can prove useful means to assess street-level exposures that can be modifiable health determinants across a wide range of informal urban settings. Findings can contribute to improved urban planning and provide useful information for identifying potential locations for neighborhood-scaled interventions that can improve living conditions for residents in Rio das Pedras.

Perceptions and Uses of Public and Private Health Care in a Brazilian Favela.

Since 1988, Brazil has reorganized and expanded its public health care system, defining access to health care as a right of every citizen. In parallel, the private health care sector grew rapidly to become one of the largest in the world. We explore the use of public and private health care by a low-income population living in a favela, Rio das Pedras, in Rio de Janeiro. At the time of data collection, only part of the community was covered by the primary health care program. We conducted semistructured interviews with 14 adults, both with and without access to the public primary care program. Regardless of program coverage, participants noted barriers and negative experiences while accessing public health care. The perceived inability of health professionals to deal compassionately with a low-income population was prominent in their narratives, and in the expressed motivation for pursuing private sector health care alternatives. We explore the tension arising from the more recent rights-based health care provision and historic social control and assistentialist framing of state intervention in Brazilian favelas.

Spatiotemporal Determinants of Urban Leptospirosis Transmission: Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study of Slum Residents in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Rat-borne leptospirosis is an emerging zoonotic disease in urban slum settlements for which there are no adequate control measures. The challenge in elucidating risk factors and informing approaches for prevention is the complex and heterogeneous environment within slums, which vary at fine spatial scales and influence transmission of the bacterial agent. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a prospective study of 2,003 slum residents in the city of Salvador, Brazil during a four-year period (2003-2007) and used a spatiotemporal modelling approach to delineate the dynamics of leptospiral transmission. Household interviews and Geographical Information System surveys were performed annually to evaluate risk exposures and environmental transmission sources. We completed annual serosurveys to ascertain leptospiral infection based on serological evidence. Among the 1,730 (86%) individuals who completed at least one year of follow-up, the infection rate was 35.4 (95% CI, 30.7-40.6) per 1,000 annual follow-up events. Male gender, illiteracy, and age were independently associated with infection risk. Environmental risk factors included rat infestation (OR 1.46, 95% CI, 1.00-2.16), contact with mud (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.17-2.17) and lower household elevation (OR 0.92 per 10m increase in elevation, 95% CI 0.82-1.04). The spatial distribution of infection risk was highly heterogeneous and varied across small scales. Fixed effects in the spatiotemporal model accounted for the majority of the spatial variation in risk, but there was a significant residual component that was best explained by the spatial random effect. Although infection risk varied between years, the spatial distribution of risk associated with fixed and random effects did not vary temporally. Specific "hot-spots" consistently had higher transmission risk during study years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The risk for leptospiral infection in urban slums is determined in large part by structural features, both social and environmental. Our findings indicate that topographic factors such as household elevation and inadequate drainage increase risk by promoting contact with mud and suggest that the soil-water interface serves as the environmental reservoir for spillover transmission. The use of a spatiotemporal approach allowed the identification of geographic outliers with unexplained risk patterns. This approach, in addition to guiding targeted community-based interventions and identifying new hypotheses, may have general applicability towards addressing environmentally-transmitted diseases that have emerged in complex urban slum settings.

Cohort Profile: Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil).

Chronic diseases are a global problem, yet information on their determinants is generally scant in low- and middle-income countries. The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) aims to contribute relevant information regarding the development and progression of clinical and subclinical chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, in one such setting. At Visit 1, we enrolled 15 105 civil servants from predefined universities or research institutes. Baseline assessment (2008-10) included detailed interviews and measurements to assess social and biological determinants of health, as well as various clinical and subclinical conditions related to diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and mental health. A second visit of interviews and examinations is under way (2012-14) to enrich the assessment of cohort exposures and to detect initial incident events. Annual surveillance has been conducted since 2009 for the ascertainment of incident events. Biological samples (sera, plasma, urine and DNA) obtained at both visits have been placed in long-term storage. Baseline data are available for analyses, and collaboration via specific research proposals directed to study investigators is welcome.

Prospective study of leptospirosis transmission in an urban slum community: role of poor environment in repeated exposures to the Leptospira agent.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis has emerged as an urban health problem as slum settlements have rapidly spread worldwide and created conditions for rat-borne transmission. Prospective studies have not been performed to determine the disease burden, identify risk factors for infection and provide information needed to guide interventions in these marginalized communities. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We enrolled and followed a cohort of 2,003 residents from a slum community in the city of Salvador, Brazil. Baseline and one-year serosurveys were performed to identify primary and secondary Leptospira infections, defined as respectively, seroconversion and four-fold rise in microscopic agglutination titers. We used multinomial logistic regression models to evaluate risk exposures for acquiring primary and secondary infection. A total of 51 Leptospira infections were identified among 1,585 (79%) participants who completed the one-year follow-up protocol. The crude infection rate was 37.8 per 1,000 person-years. The secondary infection rate was 2.3 times higher than that of primary infection rate (71.7 and 31.1 infections per 1,000 person-years, respectively). Male gender (OR 2.88; 95% CI 1.40-5.91) and lower per capita household income (OR 0.54; 95% CI, 0.30-0.98 for an increase of $1 per person per day) were independent risk factors for primary infection. In contrast, the 15-34 year age group (OR 10.82, 95% CI 1.38-85.08), and proximity of residence to an open sewer (OR 0.95; 0.91-0.99 for an increase of 1 m distance) were significant risk factors for secondary infection. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study found that slum residents had high risk (>3% per year) for acquiring a Leptospira infection. Re-infection is a frequent event and occurs in regions of slum settlements that are in proximity to open sewers. Effective prevention of leptospirosis will therefore require interventions that address the infrastructure deficiencies that contribute to repeated exposures among slum inhabitants.

Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil): objectives and design.

Although low- and middle-income countries still bear the burden of major infectious diseases, chronic noncommunicable diseases are becoming increasingly common due to rapid demographic, epidemiologic, and nutritional transitions. However, information is generally scant in these countries regarding chronic disease incidence, social determinants, and risk factors. The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) aims to contribute relevant information with respect to the development and progression of clinical and subclinical chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. In this report, the authors delineate the study's objectives, principal methodological features, and timeline. At baseline, ELSA-Brasil enrolled 15,105 civil servants from 5 universities and 1 research institute. The baseline examination (2008-2010) included detailed interviews, clinical and anthropometric examinations, an oral glucose tolerance test, overnight urine collection, a 12-lead resting electrocardiogram, measurement of carotid intima-media thickness, echocardiography, measurement of pulse wave velocity, hepatic ultrasonography, retinal fundus photography, and an analysis of heart rate variability. Long-term biologic sample storage will allow investigation of biomarkers that may predict cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Annual telephone surveillance, initiated in 2009, will continue for the duration of the study. A follow-up examination is scheduled for 2012-2013.

Stratified sampling design and loss to follow-up in survival models: evaluation of efficiency and bias.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal studies often employ complex sample designs to optimize sample size, over-representing population groups of interest. The effect of sample design on parameter estimates is quite often ignored, particularly when fitting survival models. Another major problem in long-term cohort studies is the potential bias due to loss to follow-up. METHODS: In this paper we simulated a dataset with approximately 50,000 individuals as the target population and 15,000 participants to be followed up for 40 years, both based on real cohort studies of cardiovascular diseases. Two sample strategies--simple random (our golden standard) and Stratified by professional group, with non-proportional allocation--and two loss to follow-up scenarios--non-informative censoring and losses related to the professional group--were analyzed. RESULTS: Two modeling approaches were evaluated: weighted and non-weighted fit. Our results indicate that under the correctly specified model, ignoring the sample weights does not affect the results. However, the model ignoring the interaction of sample strata with the variable of interest and the crude estimates were highly biased. CONCLUSIONS: In epidemiological studies misspecification should always be considered, as different sources of variability, related to the individuals and not captured by the covariates, are always present. Therefore, allowance must be made for the possibility of unknown confounders and interactions with the main variable of interest in our data. It is strongly recommended always to correct by sample weights.

An entomological surveillance system based on open spatial information for participative dengue control

Aedes aegypti is a very efficient disseminator of human pathogens. This condition is the result of evolutionary adaptations to frequent haematophagy, as well as to the colonization of countless types of habitats associated with environmental and cultural factors that favor the proliferation of this mosquito in urban ecosystems. Studies using sensitive methods of monitoring demonstrate that the methods of surveillance used in the Brazilian program do not show the high degrees of the infestation of cities by this vector. To increase the capacity of the health sector, new tools are needed to the practice of surveillance, which incorporate aspects of the vector, place and human population. We describe here the SMCP-Aedes - Monitoring System and Population Control of Aedes aegypti, aiming to provide an entomological surveillance framework as a basis for epidemiological surveillance of dengue. The SMCP-Aedes is uphold in the space technology information, supported by the intensive use of the web and free software to collect, store, analyze and disseminate information on the spatial-temporal distribution of the estimated density for the population of Aedes, based on data systematically collected with the use of ovitraps. Planned control interventions, intensified where and when indicated by the entomological surveillance, are agreed with the communities, relying on the permanent social mobilization.

Associadas a fatores bióticos, climáticos e culturais que favorecem a proliferação do Aedes aegypti em ecossistemas urbanos, adaptações evolutivas à hematofagia freqüente e quase exclusiva em humanos e à colonização de tipos infinitos de habitats, fazem deste mosquito um disseminador extremamente eficiente de patógenos ao homem. Estudos utilizando métodos sensíveis de monitoramento demonstram que os métodos de vigilância usados no programa brasileiro não revelam as elevadas intensidades da infestação das cidades por este vetor. Para ampliar a capacidade do setor de saúde novos instrumentos são necessários à prática da vigilância, incorporando aspectos do vetor, do lugar e das pessoas do lugar. Apresentamos aqui o SMCP-Aedes - Sistema de Monitoramento e Controle Populacional do Ae. aegypti, cuja meta é a instrumentalização da vigilância entomológica como base para a vigilância epidemiológica da dengue. Para isso ele se apóia em tecnologias da informação espacial baseadas no uso intensivo da web e de software livre para coletar, armazenar, analisar e disseminar informações relativas à distribuição espaço-temporal da densidade estimada para a população do Aedes, com base em amostras obtidas continuamente com ovitrampas. Intervenções de controle planejadas e intensificadas onde e quando indicado pela vigilância entomológica, são pactuadas com os habitantes, apoiando-se na mobilização social permanente.

An entomological surveillance system based on open spatial information for participative dengue control.

Aedes aegypti is a very efficient disseminator of human pathogens. This condition is the result of evolutionary adaptations to frequent haematophagy, as well as to the colonization of countless types of habitats associated with environmental and cultural factors that favor the proliferation of this mosquito in urban ecosystems. Studies using sensitive methods of monitoring demonstrate that the methods of surveillance used in the Brazilian program do not show the high degrees of the infestation of cities by this vector. To increase the capacity of the health sector, new tools are needed to the practice of surveillance, which incorporate aspects of the vector, place and human population. We describe here the SMCP-Aedes - Monitoring System and Population Control of Aedes aegypti, aiming to provide an entomological surveillance framework as a basis for epidemiological surveillance of dengue. The SMCP-Aedes is uphold in the space technology information, supported by the intensive use of the web and free software to collect, store, analyze and disseminate information on the spatial-temporal distribution of the estimated density for the population of Aedes, based on data systematically collected with the use of ovitraps. Planned control interventions, intensified where and when indicated by the entomological surveillance, are agreed with the communities, relying on the permanent social mobilization.

Spatial point analysis based on dengue surveys at household level in central Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus (DENV) affects nonimunne human populations in tropical and subtropical regions. In the Americas, dengue has drastically increased in the last two decades and Brazil is considered one of the most affected countries. The high frequency of asymptomatic infection makes difficult to estimate prevalence of infection using registered cases and to locate high risk intra-urban area at population level. The goal of this spatial point analysis was to identify potential high-risk intra-urban areas of dengue, using data collected at household level from surveys. METHODS: Two household surveys took place in the city of Goiania (approximately 1.1 million population), Central Brazil in the year 2001 and 2002. First survey screened 1,586 asymptomatic individuals older than 5 years of age. Second survey 2,906 asymptomatic volunteers, same age-groups, were selected by multistage sampling (census tracts; blocks; households) using available digital maps. Sera from participants were tested by dengue virus-specific IgM/IgG by EIA. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to detect the spatial varying risk over the region. Initially without any fixed covariates, to depict the overall risk map, followed by a model including the main covariates and the year, where the resulting maps show the risk associated with living place, controlled for the individual risk factors. This method has the advantage to generate smoothed risk factors maps, adjusted by socio-demographic covariates. RESULTS: The prevalence of antibody against dengue infection was 37.3% (95%CI [35.5-39.1]) in the year 2002; 7.8% increase in one-year interval. The spatial variation in risk of dengue infection significantly changed when comparing 2001 with 2002, (ORadjusted = 1.35; p < 0.001), while controlling for potential confounders using GAM model. Also increasing age and low education levels were associated with dengue infection. CONCLUSION: This study showed spatial heterogeneity in the risk areas of dengue when using a spatial multivariate approach in a short time interval. Data from household surveys pointed out that low prevalence areas in 2001 surveys shifted to high-risk area in consecutive year. This mapping of dengue risks should give insights for control interventions in urban areas.

Impact of environment and social gradient on Leptospira infection in urban slums.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis has become an urban health problem as slum settlements have expanded worldwide. Efforts to identify interventions for urban leptospirosis have been hampered by the lack of population-based information on Leptospira transmission determinants. The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence of Leptospira infection and identify risk factors for infection in the urban slum setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a community-based survey of 3,171 slum residents from Salvador, Brazil. Leptospira agglutinating antibodies were measured as a marker for prior infection. Poisson regression models evaluated the association between the presence of Leptospira antibodies and environmental attributes obtained from Geographical Information System surveys and indicators of socioeconomic status and exposures for individuals. Overall prevalence of Leptospira antibodies was 15.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.0-16.8). Households of subjects with Leptospira antibodies clustered in squatter areas at the bottom of valleys. The risk of acquiring Leptospira antibodies was associated with household environmental factors such as residence in flood-risk regions with open sewers (prevalence ratio [PR] 1.42, 95% CI 1.14-1.75) and proximity to accumulated refuse (1.43, 1.04-1.88), sighting rats (1.32, 1.10-1.58), and the presence of chickens (1.26, 1.05-1.51). Furthermore, low income and black race (1.25, 1.03-1.50) were independent risk factors. An increase of US$1 per day in per capita household income was associated with an 11% (95% CI 5%-18%) decrease in infection risk. CONCLUSIONS: Deficiencies in the sanitation infrastructure where slum inhabitants reside were found to be environmental sources of Leptospira transmission. Even after controlling for environmental factors, differences in socioeconomic status contributed to the risk of Leptospira infection, indicating that effective prevention of leptospirosis may need to address the social factors that produce unequal health outcomes among slum residents, in addition to improving sanitation.

Detection and modelling of case clusters for urban leptospirosis.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the epidemiological profile of 488 cases of leptospirosis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil between 1997 and 2002, using a variety of methods of spatial epidemiology, to establish alert guidelines in general hospitals, which might be a tool to improve diagnosis and treatment of leptospirosis to reduce lethality rates. METHODS: Scan statistics identified six space-time clusters, which comprised a range of 2 to 28 cases per cluster. Generalized linear mixed models were used to evaluate risk factors for a cluster case which incorporated individual characteristics and spatial information on environmental and climactic factors in a single model frame. RESULTS: Cluster case events were associated with heavy rainfall (OR 3.71; 95% CI 1.83-7.51). The model did not identify socioeconomic or environmental covariates that significantly influence the risk of developing a cluster rather than non-cluster case. CONCLUSION: Clustering of leptospirosis in this urban setting appears to be due to transmission during heavy rainfall.

Spread pattern of the first dengue epidemic in the city of Salvador, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The explosive epidemics of dengue that have been occurring in various countries have stimulated investigation into new approaches to improve understanding of the problem and to develop new strategies for controlling the disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of diffusion of the first dengue epidemic that occurred in the city of Salvador in 1995. METHODS: The epidemiological charts and records of notified cases of dengue in Salvador in 1995 constituted the source of data. The cases of the disease were georeferenced according to census areas (spatial units) and epidemiological weeks (temporal unit). Kernel density estimation was used to identify the pattern of spatial diffusion using the R-Project computer software program. RESULTS: Of the 2,006 census areas in the city, 1,400 (70%) registered cases of dengue in 1995 and the spatial distribution of these records revealed that by the end of 1995 practically the entire city had been affected by the virus, with the largest concentration of cases occurring in the western region, composed of census areas with a high population density and predominantly horizontal residences compared to the eastern region of the city, where there is a predominance of vertical residential buildings. CONCLUSION: The pattern found in this study shows the characteristics of the classic process of spreading by contagion that is common to most infectious diseases. It was possible to identify the epicenter of the epidemic from which centrifugal waves of the disease emanated. Our results suggest that, if a more agile control instrument existed that would be capable of rapidly reducing the vector population within a few days or of raising the group immunity of the population by means of a vaccine, it would theoretically be possible to adopt control actions around the epicenter of the epidemic and consequently reduce the incidence of the disease in the city. This finding emphasizes the need for further research to improve the technology available for the prevention of this disease.

Tuberculosis in intra-urban settings: a Bayesian approach.

OBJECTIVE: To model the effect of socio-economic deprivation and a few transmission-related indicators of the tuberculosis (TB) incidence at small area level, to discuss the potential of each indicator in targeting places for developing preventive action. METHODS: Ecological spatial study of TB incidence in Olinda, a city in the north-east of Brazil, during the period 1996-2000. Three socio-economic indicators (mean number of inhabitants per household; percentage of heads of household with <1 year's formal education; percentage of heads of households with monthly income lower than the minimum wage) and two transmission-related indicators (number of cases of retreatment; number of households with more than one case during the period under study), all calculated per census tract, were used. We adopted four different full hierarchical Bayesian models to estimate the relative risk of the occurrence of TB via Markov chain Monte Carlo. RESULTS: The best specified model includes all the selected covariates and the spatially structured random effect. The gain in goodness-of-fit statistic when the spatial structure was included confirms the clustered spatial pattern of disease and poverty. In this model, the covariates within the non-zero credibility interval were the number of persons per house, the number of cases of retreatment and the number of households with more than one case (all with relative risk > or = 1.8) in each census tract. CONCLUSIONS: The possibility to estimate in the same framework both the contribution of covariates at ecological level and the spatial pattern should be encouraged in epidemiology, and may help with establishing Epidemiological Surveillance Systems on a territorial basis, that allows rational planning of interventions and improvement of the Control Programme effectiveness.

Prognosis of critically ill patients with cancer and acute renal dysfunction.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the outcomes of critically ill patients with cancer and acute renal dysfunction. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prospective cohort study conducted at a 10-bed oncologic medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) over a 56-month period. RESULTS: Of 975 patients, 309 (32%) had renal dysfunction and were studied. Their mean age was 60.9 +/- 15.9 years; 233 patients (75%) had solid tumors and 76 (25%) had hematologic malignancies. During the ICU stay, 98 patients (32%) received dialysis. Renal dysfunction was multifactorial in 56% of the patients, and the main associated factors were shock/ischemia (72%) and sepsis (63%). Overall hospital and 6-month mortality rates were 64% and 73%, respectively. Among patients who required dialysis, mortality rates were lower in patients who received dialysis on the first day of ICU in comparison with those who required it thereafter. In a multivariable Cox model, age more than 60 years, uncontrolled cancer, impaired performance status, and more than two associated organ failures were associated with increased 6-month mortality. Renal function was completely re-established in 82% and partially re-established in 12%, and only 6% of survivors required chronic dialysis. CONCLUSION: Acute renal dysfunction is frequent in critically ill patients with cancer. Although mortality rates are high, selected patients can benefit from ICU care and advanced organ support. When evaluating prognosis and the appropriateness of dialysis in these patients, older age, functional capacity, cancer status and the severity of associated organ failures are important variables to take into consideration.

Effect of age on survival of critically ill patients with cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effects of age on 6-month survival of critically ill patients with cancer. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models. SETTING: Ten-bed oncologic medical-surgical intensive care unit. PATIENTS: Eight hundred sixty-two patients with cancer, excluding bone marrow transplant patients. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The mean age was 57.8+/-16.2 yrs. The hospital and 6-month mortality rates were 48% and 58%, respectively. Age was independently associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.015; 95% confidence interval, 1.009-1.021). Martingale residual analysis, however, suggested an inflection point in the effect of age, with an upward trend for patients aged>60 yrs. Therefore, patients were stratified in two groups: young (60 yrs, n=431, 50%). In young patients, uncontrolled cancer, mechanical ventilation, and number of organ failures were associated with poor outcome, whereas surgery before intensive care unit admission was protective. The variables associated with increased mortality for elderly patients were performance status 3-4, uncontrolled cancer, number of organ failures, and the presence of a severe comorbidity. In this group, age was associated with a lower survival rate. In general, the effect of covariates on the outcome was higher in the elderly group. CONCLUSIONS: Aging was associated with increased mortality, especially for patients>60 yrs. The severity of organ failures and the presence of uncontrolled cancer were the main predictive factors, but there were important differences among the outcome predictors for young and elderly patients. Our results suggest that selected older patients with cancer can benefit from intensive care.

Mortalidade infantil no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil : areas de risco e trajetoria dos pacientes ate os servicos de saude / Infant mortality in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil : higher risk areas, and patients travel for health services

A taxa de mortalidade infantil e considerada sintese da qualidade de vida e do nivel de desenvolvimento de uma populacao. Entretanto, essa taxa e muito sensivel a acoes simples, como terapia de reidratacao oral, vacinacao e reversao do desmame precoce, cuja cobertura tem sido ampliada. Assim, a taxa de mortalidade infantil pode nao estar mais refletindo o modelo de desenvolvimento. Buscando um aprofundamneto da discussao sobre a mortalidade infantil, o presente estudo analisou os 153 bairros do Municipio do Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brasil. Nosso objetivo foi localizar areas de risco e grupos prioritarios de intervencao que visam diminuir a mortalidade infantil no municipio, abordando separadamente a mortalidade neonatal e posneonatal segundo os bairros. Alem disso, foram identificados os fluxos entre o local de residencia da crianca e o local de obito, relacionando-os a classificacao socioeconomica dos bairros. A baixa frequencia de nascimentos em alguns bairros impediu a caracterizacao de areas com risco de mortalidade estatisticamente significativo em relacao a media do municipio. Cerca de um terco das mortes foram consideradas redutiveis mediante praticas adequadas de diagnostico e tratamento. Somente 15 por cento das causas de morte foram consideradas inevitaveis. Os componentes da mortalidade infantil apresentaram distribuicao espacial dispersa, sem uma relacao direta com o perfil socioeconomico; a mudanca no perfil da mortalidade infantil e a possibilidade de intervencao parece deslocar-se cada vez mais para a esfera dos servicos de saude, especialmente os medico-assistenciais. O fluxo das criancas entre o local de residencia e o local de obito mostra o deslocamento originado nas areas mais pobres em direcao as mais ricas, que concentram a maior parte das unidades de saude. Essa tendencia reafirma o papel fundamental do acesso a assistencia medica de qualidade na determinacao da mortalidade infantil

Demanda ambulatorial em três serviços da rede pública do município do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil / A survey of demand for medical care in three public health clinics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Realiza um estudo de demanda em três serviços da rede pública dois ambulatoriais e um de urgência localizados na X Regiäo Administrativa do município do Rio de Janeiro, Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. A amostra obtida foi de 2.209 pacientes de 1 de outubro de 1990 a 30 de setembro de 1991. Os diagnósticos form codificados pela 9ª revisäo da Classificaçäo Internacional de Doenças. Cerca de 60 po cento dos atendimentos foram prestados a mulheres, mais da metade entre 15 e 49 anos. Crianças menores de 10 anos representaram 28 por cento do total de atendimentos. Grande parte da demanda (38 por cento) é formada pela populaçäo favelada da área. Nos serviços ambulatoriais foi grande a procura por açoes preventivas, como consulta de pré-natal e puericultura, inclusive na unidade que historicamente realizava apenas açoes curativas. No serviço de urgência predominou o atendimento por causas externas. Entre os diagnósticos específicos mais frequentes estäo as infecçoes repiratórias agudas, a hipertensäo arterial, problemas ginecológicos, consultas de pré-natal e doenças de pele. A precariedade do registro médico traz prejuízos à assistência.